by Research has found that over the past three decades, a land area nearly a third larger than India has transformed from wet conditions to drylands – arid areas where farming is difficult.
Drylands now account for 40% of the Earth’s total land area, excluding Antarctica. According to the study by the UN Science Policy Interface, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations, three-quarters of the world’s land area has experienced drier conditions over the past 30 years, which is expected to continue permanently.
According to the report, Africa lost about 12% of its GDP between 1990 and 2015 due to increasing drought. Even worse losses are forecast: Africa will lose about 16% of its GDP over the next half decade, and Asia will lose almost 7%.
Ibrahim Thiaw, executive secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), said: “Unlike droughts – temporary periods of low rainfall – drought represents a permanent, unstoppable change.”
“The droughts are over. However, as the climate in an area becomes drier, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climate now affecting vast areas around the world will not be the same again, and this change is redefining life on Earth.”
Some crops will be particularly at risk: corn yields in Kenya are expected to halve by 2050 if current trends continue. Drylands are areas where 90% of precipitation is lost to evaporation, leaving only 10% for vegetation. According to the report published on Monday, two-thirds of the world’s land area will store less water by mid-century.
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Governments are more than halfway through a global conference in Riyadh that ends this Friday as part of the UNCCD. Saudi Arabia is one of the driest countries in the world and is keen to use the two weeks of talks to reach a global agreement to halt the degradation of the world’s land and begin restoring affected areas.
Despite hosting the conference, Saudi Arabia appears unwilling to talk about the climate crisis, which is the main driver of global desertification. Saudi Arabia played a blocking role at a key climate summit, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) in Azerbaijan last month.
The world’s water problems are becoming more and more acute due to the global failure to combat greenhouse gas emissions. According to the UN-SPI (Science-Policy Interface) study, in 2020 about 30% of the population – 2.3 billion people worldwide – lived in drylands, up from about 22.5% in 1990.
This figure is expected to double by the year 2100 if too little is done to reduce CO2 emissions. Almost half of Africa’s people already live in dry areas.
Barron Orr, senior scientist at UNCCD, said: “For the first time, a UN scientific panel warns that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across large parts of the world, with potentially catastrophic impacts on access to water, people and nature “could be even closer to catastrophic tipping points.”
Several studies have shown that climate breakdown is “inextricably linked to the global water crisis,” but poor agricultural practices, excessive water extraction, soil erosion and destruction of natural vegetation are also factors.
Praveena Sridhar, chief technical officer, Save Soil campaign group, said: “Healthy soils are the foundation of life. Drying soils indicate degraded soils, and the cause is clear: human activity.
“Intensive agriculture is the main cause of land and soil degradation. It is leading to biodiversity loss, declining carbon sequestration and worsening floods, droughts and wildfires – problems that are rapidly increasing around the world.”
Experts called on governments to act. Mark Maslin, professor of Earth system science at University College London, who was not involved in the study, warned: “This is the land we rely on for food production.” [This] is not just a warning, but a call to politicians that there are solutions.
“First, we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which will reduce climate change and global drought. Second, we can recognize that the world is drying out and take steps to slow it down and adapt to it.
“We now have so many solutions: sustainable agriculture, water management, reforestation and rewilding to education and awareness. Ultimately, good local and national governance is needed to address desertification of our precious, life-giving planet.”
Kate Gannon, a research fellow at the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, told the Guardian: “Increasing drought is exacerbating poverty, forcing over-exploitation of vulnerable resources and accelerating land degradation, creating a vicious cycle of resource scarcity, water insecurity and reduced agricultural potential .
“These communities with the least ability to adapt face serious health, nutrition and well-being consequences due to the risk of food shortages, displacement and forced migration. “This is not only a profound injustice, but also a global challenge.”
